ALDS, NLDS set to kick-off this week

ALDS, NLDS set to kick-off this week


It took 162 games to decide the match-ups for the 2010 Major League Baseball season, but we finally know the 8 teams vying to be crowned the champion. The winner of the American League East, the Tampa Bay Rays led by Cy Young candidate David Price, plays host to the American League West champion Texas Rangers, led by sensational rookie closer Neftali Feliz, MVP candidate Josh Hamilton, and ace lefty Cliff Lee. The Rays won the season series, 4-2, but head into this series with a sub-.500 record over a span of 28 games (13-15). Meanwhile, the Rangers are just slightly above .500 over their final 29 games (15-14). Granted much of that time was spent playing out the schedule, having had a significant lead over 2nd place Oakland, but the ability to turn the engine back on may prove difficult.

The Rays have the unenviable distinction of having been no-hit not ONCE, but TWICE in the same season. Their offense is more inconsistent than Lady Gaga‘s look, and there are serious questions about the stability of their rotation. James Shields (13-15, 5.18 ERA), ended the season with an ERA of nearly 6 over the final 2 months. Jeff Niemann (12-8, 4.39 ERA), had an 8.78 ERA over the same time span, and has not really bounced back since spending time on the DL with a bad shoulder. Add Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA) who had a 5.88 ERA in the month of September, and all contribute to a rotation that may or may not deliver.

On the Rangers’ side of the ledger, Cliff Lee struggled through a rough patch during the month of August, going 1-6 with a 7.14 ERA, but bounced back nicely in September, throwing 3 quality starts. Colby Lewis, a scrub pitcher who came into 2010 with a 12-15 LIFETIME record (72 starts), and 6.71 ERA, concluded the season with a 12-13 mark, and an ERA of just 3.72 in 32 starts. C.J. Wilson, a converted reliever into a starter, came into his own this year, winning 15, and accruing an ERA of just 3.35 (33 starts). On paper, this series looks to favor the Rangers. A lineup that includes playoff newbie Michael Young, Vlad Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Derek Jeter-wannabe Elvis Andrus, appears to be too potent for homer-happy Shields and Garza to contain.

Prediction: Rangers in 4
Keys to the series: Can the Rays starters provide quality starts? Can the Rays offense support their pitchers? Will Cliff Lee show the dominance that he displayed in the 2009 World Series? Will Josh Hamilton be productive?

In the other ALDS match, the American League Central champion Minnesota Twins, led by reigning MVP Joe Mauer, play host to the American League Wild Card champion (and defending World Series champion) New York Yankees, led by a vaunted offensive attack including the active all-time home run leader, Alex Rodriguez, and another MVP candidate, Robinson Cano. The Yankees won their season series, 5-2. The Twins came into 2010 having lost their All-Star closer, Joe Nathan, to season ending Tommy John surgery. They made a trade with the Washington Nationals to acquire Matt Capps, who replaced opening day closer Jon Rauch. They had to deal with injuries in their rotation (Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn), and in their offense (Justin Morneau, Orlando Hudson), but got a jolt by the emergence of Delmon Young as a viable producer (career highs in batting at .292, home runs at 21, and RBI at 112), having eclipsed the 100 RBI mark for the first time in his career, and a power surge by the veteran Jim Thome (25 home runs in only 276 at-bats). Francisco Liriano, bouncing back from his own Tommy John surgery, set career highs in wins (14), innings pitched (191 2/3), and strike outs (201). Carl Pavano, who’s history of finding a way to NOT pitch, came just 1 win short of tying a career high, and just 1 1/3 innings from tying a career high.

The Yankees enter this series coming off a horrible month of September, by their standards (12-15 record). They had numerous opportunities to win the division, while the Rays made every attempt to fold. Beyond ace lefty CC Sabathia, things are muddled. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) made just 3 starts after returning from the DL following a groin injury. 2 of those starts against Boston did not go so well (11.05 ERA combined). Phil Hughes, who Joe Girardi chose to start, rather than skip in a game against the Red Sox, maxed on his innings limit. He may be asked to start twice in this series, and has yet to make a playoff start. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) had a decent final tune-up against the Red Sox in Fenway, but cannot be trusted to come with his A+ stuff in a critical situation (12 quality starts with a combined 1.66 ERA, 8.56 ERA in all others combined). Likely, the Yankees will look to get by in this series with 3 starters, to avoid the potential mess of Javier Vazquez. The bullpen appears to be in good shape, with the reemergence of Joba Chamberlain as a shutdown reliever, a blast from the past with Kerry Wood, the strikeout machine David Robertson, a tough lefty in Boone Logan to neutralize the Mauers and Kubels, and the ageless one, Mariano Rivera.  Derek Jeter, a playoff veteran (most games all time, most hits all time in postseason history) ended the year on a high note, Rodriguez hit 5 home runs and drove in 12 runs in his final 10 games, Cano seems poised to have a big series, and Swisher looks to improve on a dreadful 2009 playoff run. 

If the Yankees play to their capabilities, it will be another quick exit for a Twins team that has failed thrice in the last decade to beat the Yankees. If they play like they did down the stretch run, look for a repeat of 2007. Prediction: Yankees in 4
Keys to the series: Can Francisco Liriano be the ace this team needs? Can Matt Capps hold down a potential lead? Will the Twins miss Justin Morneau (concussion)? Can Andy Pettitte be effective? Can the bridge to Mariano hold? Can the Yankees manufacture runs?

Over to the NL side…the National League East champion (and 2-time defending National League champion) Philadelphia Phillies host the National League Central champion (first playoff appearance in 15 years) Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies won the season series, 5-2. The Phillies look like the clear favorites to advance to their 3rd consecutive World Series, the first National League team to accomplish that feat in over 60 years (1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals). They’re lead by game 1 starter, and Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay. Halladay is in his first postseason, having spent the duration of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays. Over the season’s final month, Halladay went a perfect 5-0, with a 3.42 ERA. Game 2 starter Roy Oswalt, former ace of the Houston Astros, had a lights out September with a 4-0 record, and a miniscule 1.12 ERA. Game 3 starter, Cole Hamels, was 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in that same month. This big 3 is arguably as good as any you’ll find. Offensively, what pitching staff wants to face the likes of Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez? This team belongs in the American League with all that firepower.

The Cincinnati Reds, led by MVP candidate Joey Votto, are looking to win their first playoff series since George Herbert Walker Bush called 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue his residence (and the now-retried Lou Piniella was kicking dirt at a theater near you). Their rotation is young and inexperienced, but full of potent arms. Edinson Volquez, their game 1 starter, finished the stretch run with a 1.95 ERA this year, with a strikeout/9 rate of over 10. Veteran Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA) set a new career high for wins this year, and looks to improve on an average September (3-2, 4.19 ERA). Johnny Cueto, set career highs in wins (12) and innings pitched (185 2/3), though his September (0-3, 4.32 ERA) was not great. Offensively, this team is going to struggle against the Phillies’ starters, even with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Scott Rolen, etc. The Phillies have the edge in the bullpen, with battle tested Brad Lidge. The Phillies may be hurt by J.C. Romero possibly being hindered with health issues, but they’ve been through this song and dance before.

Prediction: Phillies in 3
Keys to the series: Will Roy Halladay be as great in the postseason as he is in the regular season? How will J.C. Romero’s absence effect the bullpen? Can Brad Lidge be trusted?

And finally, the National League West champion San Francisco Giants (first divisional title in 7 years) take on the National League Wild Card champion Atlanta Braves (in Bobby Cox’s last hurrah). The Braves won this season series, 4-3. The Braves come into this series having BARELY eeked out a playoff berth on the last day of the season. Injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Kris Medlen have compromised their rotation, and the struggles of Tim Hudson down the stretch (2-4, 5.32 ERA) have put seriously in doubt how likely the Braves are to be competitive. Tommy Hanson, in his first full season as a starter, performed admirably with double digit wins, and a respectable 3.33 ERA. Derek Lowe could very well take on the ace role, having gone undefeated in September, with a sparkling 1.17 ERA. The problems with this team can be found in their offense. Minus Martin Prado and Chipper Jones, they’re going to have problems scoring runs. Rookie of the Year candidate Jason Heyward will need an Andruw Jones 1996 World Series reenactment to give this offense the boost it needs. Holding down the fort in the bullpen is the retiring Billy Wagner, who’s strike out rate in 2010 (13.5) borders on unfair.

The Giants, who got pushed to the brink of a 1 game playoff by the Padres over the last weekend of the season, are armed and dangerous. 2-time reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (5-1, 1.94 ERA in September), Matt Cain (5-1, 3.29 ERA in September), and Jonathan Sanchez (5-1, 1.01 ERA) are 3 starters that NO team wants to see in a first-to-3-wins-takes-it-all, ESPECIALLY not a team who’s proficiency to score runs makes Vitamin C’s 1 hit “Graduation” seem like a significant accomplishment. They should be able to score enough runs with Rookie of the Year candidate Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe and Pablo Sandoval. Brian Wilson not only saved the division, he could well save a trip to the NLCS, too.

Prediction: sorry Bobby…Giants in 3
Keys to the series: Will one of the Braves starters step up and be the ace? Will someone step up and carry their offense? Will the big 3 of San Francisco fare better than the Cardinals’ big 3 of 2009? Will their bats be potent enough?

So, there you have it. Rangers vs. Yankees in the ALCS, Giants vs. Phillies in the NLCS. Hopefully, this goes better than my playoff predictions in March (yikes!). Thanks a lot, Mariners…and White Sox…and Cardinals. Stay tuned for my analysis of the championship series, due once the 4 divisional series conclude.

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