Yankees first to punch ticket to League Championship Series
A different roster. A different year. But the result was the same. Coming into their League Divisional Series match against the American League Central champions in a bit of a tailspin, the Yankees made quick work of the Twins on Saturday night, sweeping them away in a 6-1 final. Question marks abundant regarding the state of the Yankees rotation heading into this year’s postseason have all been answered - in 20 innings, the trio of CC Sabathia (1-0, 4.50 ERA), Andy Pettitte (1-0, 2.57 ERA) and Phil Hughes (1-0, 0.00 ERA) combined for 20 innings of 5 run baseball (3-0, 2.25 ERA). A balanced, well rounded lineup pounded out 9 hits in 25 at-bats with runners in scoring position (.360 BA), and a Twins team that led the league in that category managed just 2 hits in 20 at-bats (.100 BA).
The Yankees will now wait 6 days until their American League Championship Series kicks off, either in St. Petersburg or Arlington. A quick look at each potential match-up:
Yankees @ Rays
The Yankees lost 10 of 18 match-ups against the Tampa Bay Rays, accumulating a 5.29 team ERA in that stretch. Their team average was just .256. Conversely, the Rays accumulated a team ERA against the Yankees of 4.84, and a team batting average of .269. Now, for a look at potential pitching match-ups:
Game 1 @ Rays
CC Sabathia - In 2010, CC pitched to a 1-2 record and a 3.38 ERA against the Rays. In Tampa, he was 1-1 with a 1.21 ERA.
David Price - In 2010, Price pitched to a 2-1 record and a 4.39 ERA against the Yankees. In Tampa, he was 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA for the year.
Game 2 @ Rays
Andy Pettitte - In 2010, Pettitte pitched to an 0-1 record and a bloated 11.05 ERA against the Rays. He did not face the Rays in Tampa, but is 8-3 with a 3.84 ERA there lifetime.
James Shields - In 2010, Shields pitched to a 2-1 record with a 3.35 ERA against the Yankees. In Tampa, he was just 5-7 with a 4.53 ERA.
Game 3 @ Yankees
Matt Garza - In 2010, Garza pitched to an 0-1 record with a staggering 8.10 ERA against the Yankees. In New York, he was 0-1 with an even more staggering 9.00 ERA.
Phil Hughes - In 2010, Hughes pitched to 1-2 record and a 4.74 ERA against the Rays. In New York, he was 11-4 with a 4.66 ERA (12-4, 4.37 ERA including the ALDS).
Game 4 @ Yankees
Wade Davis - In 2010, Davis pitched to 2-1 record and a 3.43 ERA against the Yankees. In New York, he was 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA.
A.J. Burnett - In 2010, Burnett pitched to a 1-3 record with a lousy 6.27 ERA against the Rays. In New York, he was 5-7 with a 4.59 ERA.
Yankees @ Rangers
The Yankees split 8 games down the middle, winning 4 and losing 4 to the winners of the American League west. In the 8 contests, the Yankees’ team ERA was 4.20, while they batted .269. The Rangers, on the other hand, pitched to a 4.62 team ERA, and batted just .241. Once again, a look at potential match-ups:
Game 1 @ Rangers
CC Sabathia - In 2010, CC pitched to a 1-0 record and a 1.50 ERA against the Rangers. He did not start in Texas, but is 4-2 with a 4.71 ERA lifetime there.
Cliff Lee - In 2010, Lee pitched well against the Yankees, going 2-0 with a beautiful 3.09 ERA. In Texas, he was 3-2 with a 2.92 ERA.
Game 2 @ Rangers
Andy Pettitte - In 2010, Pettitte was 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA against the Rangers. He did not start in Texas, but is 2-4 with a disturbing 8.22 ERA in his career there.
C.J. Wilson - In 2010, Wilson was 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA against the Yankees, but in Texas he was 11-3 with a 3.70 ERA.
Game 3 @ Yankees
Colby Lewis - In 2010, Lewis did not make a start against the Yankees, but in his career his is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA against them.
Phil Hughes - In 2010, Hughes did not make a start against the Rangers, but in his career he is 2-0 with a clean 0.00 ERA.
Game 4 @ Yankees
Tommy Hunter - In 2010, Hunter had no record, but threw to a 3.60 ERA against the Yankees. He has never started a game in Yankee Stadium.
A.J. Burnett - In 2010, Burnett was 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA against the Rangers. In his career, he is 4-3 with a 3.66 ERA against them.
On paper, if you’re a Yankee fan, you have to like facing the Rays more than the Rangers. As has been shown in the past, Cliff Lee dominates the Yankees in postseason play (2-0, 2.81 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). The potent lineup of the Rangers (Guerrero: .312 BA, 10 HR and 54 RBI in 285 AB’s lifetime vs. Yankees, Cruz: .250 BA, 3 HR and 6 RBI in 32 AB’s this year vs. Yankees, Young: .294 BA, 6 HR and 41 RBI in 337 AB’s lifetime vs. Yankees) could pose a real threat to the likes of Burnett and Hughes at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. The Yankees’ lineup, in contrast, is no slouch vs. Texas (Rodriguez: .316 BA with 18 HR and 76 RBI in 412 lifetime AB’s, Cano: .309 BA with 4 HR and 26 RBI in 181 lifetime AB’s, Teixeira: .307 BA with 9 HR and 35 RBI in 192 lifetime AB’s). Despite better offensive numbers from the Rays against Yankees pitching, I just think the Rangers have more consistency. Cruz and Kinsler have certainly gotten the job done.
The Rays’ offense attack vs. the Yankees looks like this - Longoria: .282 BA with 9 HR and 29 RBI in 156 lifetime AB’s, Crawford: .301 BA with 5 HR, 66 RBI and 47 steals in 568 lifetime AB’s, Pena: 21 HR and 49 RBI in 295 lifetime AB’s. Their series vs. Texas has been a microcosm of their year - scoring in spurts, and being far too easy to shut down. Longoria has done nothing against the Rangers, and their anemic production has shown through.
The X factor for the Rays would be the exact same as it has been in the ALDS between the Rays and Rangers - can Matt Garza and James Shields be consistent? So far, Garza stepped up in a must-win, and kept the Rays’ season alive. But Shields continues to struggle, and against the Yankees lineup, that simply won’t fly. The X factor for the Rangers would be Lee’s ability to neutralize guys like Granderson and Gardner, and whether the youth in their bullpen would hold up against the Yankees, especially on the road.
Both Raphael Soriano (in his first ever postseason), and Neftali Feliz have shown shakiness in their playoff appearances. It makes you truly appreciate what Mariano Rivera (41 saves, 0.73 ERA) has accomplished in his Hall of Fame career. If the Yankees face the Rangers (and it would take a small miracle for that to NOT happen), I like the Yankees in a thrilling 6 game series. A split in Texas would give the Yankees a chance to take the series back to Texas, and if they can replicate their success in Minnesota, they’d have a shot at another pennant at home. A CC vs. Cliff Lee duel would be pretty special to watch, and I like Pettitte in a face-off against Wilson. You really don’t know how certain guys would handle 2 games in New York (Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, Tommy Hunter, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando), but the talent is certainly there. If the Yankees were to be pitted against the Rays, a 7 game series seems almost inevitable. These 2 clubs bring out the best in each other, and having to face Price twice in a series (potentially even 3 times), is not something to pull for…unless, of course, you appreciate heart palpitations. As a Yankee fan, of course I pull for them to win that series, and I just can’t allow myself to pick against them…so, Yankees in 7.
Lets see what YOU have to say.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
JasonsSportsWorld
Checking out the key match-ups for week 5 of the NFL season
With 14 match-ups this week, I could spend hours crunching the numbers, going over the stats, and predicting all outcomes. But that would be both tedious and unnecessary. SO, rather than do that, I’m going to take a look at the match-ups that have the most impact on the standings.
First, lets check out the AFC:
Titans @ Cowboys
The Titans are coming off a lousy week 4 game losing at home to the Broncos. The Broncos did a great job of containing CJ, holding him to just 53 yards on the ground (just about half of the total yardage they’ve averaged per game, defensively). Kyle Orton torched the Titans through the air, throwing for 341 yards, which bodes well for Tony Romo this week. Things get no easier for the Titans, who are facing a Cowboys defense that has only surrendered less than 84 yards per game. Add in that Jason Witten looks to be a go this week, and there’s a high risk for the Titans to fall behind early, negating their ability to run the ball, period.
You can throw on the Cowboys, so it appears that the Titans are going to have to rely on Vince Young in this one. Still, it would not make me feel great having to rely on him, totally. The boys have a shot to climb out of an early hole, and I expect them to take full advantage, at home.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Titans 10
Broncos @ Ravens
The Ravens are coming off a disheartening road loss to the Steelers, having lost to Charlie Batch. Their ground game was stifled without a full compliment of carries by their top back, Ray Rice, and there’s a question whether he’ll be at all effective this week. Only 1 team has managed to score on the Broncos on the ground, and my guess is, the Ravens aren’t likely to be number 2, especially if Rice is limited. The Ravens will need to rely on the NFL’s top passing defense to stop Kyle Orton from putting the game out of hand, and after falling into a tie atop the north, a win against Denver would put the Ravens in a much better position, with Big Ben returning to the field in week 6.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Broncos 14
Chiefs @ Colts
The Colts, long accustomed to being at the top of their division, were dealt a big blow by the Jags last week, losing 31-28. They’re given the task THIS week of facing a surprisingly undefeated Chiefs team, who’s defense ranks 14th. The Colts have shown a total inability to stuff the line, allowing a whopping 149.5 yards per game to running backs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank only behind the Jets and Texans for most offensive yardage on the ground, with over 160 yards.
Kansas City isn’t nearly as adept at stopping the pass as they are the run, which gives Peyton full reign to exploit this weakness. Having another MVP caliber year, expect the Colts to take the ground game away from the Chiefs with early scores, at home. The undefeated Chiefs will be no more.
Prediction: Colts 28, Chiefs 13
Vikings @ Jets
The Jets, fresh off a thrashing of their division rivals, the hapless Bills, play host to a Vikings squad who just unwrapped a true gift in Randy Moss. And the Vikings may very well need him, as All Day is offered the challenge of running against the 4th best defense in the league. Assuming Revis Island is good to go for this week, Randy Moss should prove no major challenge for the Jets to overcome.
The Jets will need to rely on the shaky season put forth by Brett Favre to pick up some turnovers, as Sanchez could have issues against the 8th best defense, and LT’s opportunities could be very limited. But, at home, with a 1 game lead over the Patriots, I feel confident that the Jets will stuff the Vikings enough times to prevent major damage.
Prediction: Jets 14, Vikings 13
And now, the NFC:
Saints @ Cardinals
The Saints, despite being 3-1 this year, have looked pretty vulnerable, relying on comebacks to stave off their opponents. They barely eeked out a victory, at home, against the winless Panthers, who have had virtually no offense to speak of. This week, they take on a team who’s looking to a previously undrafted no-name in Max Hall, having benched the mediocre Derek Anderson. The Saints will be able to run the ball against the Cardinals, and should have no trouble passing on one of the worst defenses in the league (22nd). The Saints will look to make life miserable for Hall, having kept opposing QB’s to under 200 yards per game. I’d expect Brees to single-handedly take the running game away from the Cardinals, and get a dominant performance to breathe some life into this offense.
Prediction: Saints 34, Cardinals 10
Packers @ Redskins
Coming off a squeak-by victory at home against the winless Lions, the Packers now face a team fresh off a contentious game against the Eagles. Though they have one of the best passing defenses in the league, Ryan Torain will have a chance to pound the ball against a defense that is allowing nearly 120 yards per game. That is, IF they can contain Rodgers.
Speaking of the devil, it would be good to see him explode off a team that’s only friend in avoiding being the WORST defensive team against the pass, has been Houston. What was that about Ryan Torain getting some touches? Hmm…not likely. The Packers may not have much of a running game to speak of, but they have the weapons to take apart the Skins.
Prediction: Packers 31, Redskins 16
Eagles @ 49ers
For those keeping score at home, Kevin Kolb, he of the concussion that kept him out for 2 ½ games, is returning to the starting role this week. Amazing the instability behind center for a team in the thick of a divisional race, isn’t it? At any rate, the 49ers have yet to put together a solid performance offensively, and this week should be no exception. Not only is Philly the 5th ranked pass defense, Alex Smith has done nothing thus far to stop teams from stuffing the line.
McCoy has been getting it done this year, and a couple scores by Kolb should sufficiently put the 49ers into their shell. Once Alex Smith is forced to throw it, the Eagles should cruise to victory.
Prediction: Eagles 28, 49ers 10
And lastly, Bears @ Panthers
The Bears are off to a surprisingly good year, and get presumably a cookie match-up against the hapless, winless Panthers. This game can be summed up pretty simply - a lousy passing defense, against a QB having a very solid season, and a defense that doesn’t let anyone run on them. If the Bears manage to lose this game, it would shock me.
Prediction: Bears 28, Panthers 6
Any beef with any of this analysis? Leave it below.
With 14 match-ups this week, I could spend hours crunching the numbers, going over the stats, and predicting all outcomes. But that would be both tedious and unnecessary. SO, rather than do that, I’m going to take a look at the match-ups that have the most impact on the standings.
First, lets check out the AFC:
Titans @ Cowboys
The Titans are coming off a lousy week 4 game losing at home to the Broncos. The Broncos did a great job of containing CJ, holding him to just 53 yards on the ground (just about half of the total yardage they’ve averaged per game, defensively). Kyle Orton torched the Titans through the air, throwing for 341 yards, which bodes well for Tony Romo this week. Things get no easier for the Titans, who are facing a Cowboys defense that has only surrendered less than 84 yards per game. Add in that Jason Witten looks to be a go this week, and there’s a high risk for the Titans to fall behind early, negating their ability to run the ball, period.
You can throw on the Cowboys, so it appears that the Titans are going to have to rely on Vince Young in this one. Still, it would not make me feel great having to rely on him, totally. The boys have a shot to climb out of an early hole, and I expect them to take full advantage, at home.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Titans 10
Broncos @ Ravens
The Ravens are coming off a disheartening road loss to the Steelers, having lost to Charlie Batch. Their ground game was stifled without a full compliment of carries by their top back, Ray Rice, and there’s a question whether he’ll be at all effective this week. Only 1 team has managed to score on the Broncos on the ground, and my guess is, the Ravens aren’t likely to be number 2, especially if Rice is limited. The Ravens will need to rely on the NFL’s top passing defense to stop Kyle Orton from putting the game out of hand, and after falling into a tie atop the north, a win against Denver would put the Ravens in a much better position, with Big Ben returning to the field in week 6.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Broncos 14
Chiefs @ Colts
The Colts, long accustomed to being at the top of their division, were dealt a big blow by the Jags last week, losing 31-28. They’re given the task THIS week of facing a surprisingly undefeated Chiefs team, who’s defense ranks 14th. The Colts have shown a total inability to stuff the line, allowing a whopping 149.5 yards per game to running backs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank only behind the Jets and Texans for most offensive yardage on the ground, with over 160 yards.
Kansas City isn’t nearly as adept at stopping the pass as they are the run, which gives Peyton full reign to exploit this weakness. Having another MVP caliber year, expect the Colts to take the ground game away from the Chiefs with early scores, at home. The undefeated Chiefs will be no more.
Prediction: Colts 28, Chiefs 13
Vikings @ Jets
The Jets, fresh off a thrashing of their division rivals, the hapless Bills, play host to a Vikings squad who just unwrapped a true gift in Randy Moss. And the Vikings may very well need him, as All Day is offered the challenge of running against the 4th best defense in the league. Assuming Revis Island is good to go for this week, Randy Moss should prove no major challenge for the Jets to overcome.
The Jets will need to rely on the shaky season put forth by Brett Favre to pick up some turnovers, as Sanchez could have issues against the 8th best defense, and LT’s opportunities could be very limited. But, at home, with a 1 game lead over the Patriots, I feel confident that the Jets will stuff the Vikings enough times to prevent major damage.
Prediction: Jets 14, Vikings 13
And now, the NFC:
Saints @ Cardinals
The Saints, despite being 3-1 this year, have looked pretty vulnerable, relying on comebacks to stave off their opponents. They barely eeked out a victory, at home, against the winless Panthers, who have had virtually no offense to speak of. This week, they take on a team who’s looking to a previously undrafted no-name in Max Hall, having benched the mediocre Derek Anderson. The Saints will be able to run the ball against the Cardinals, and should have no trouble passing on one of the worst defenses in the league (22nd). The Saints will look to make life miserable for Hall, having kept opposing QB’s to under 200 yards per game. I’d expect Brees to single-handedly take the running game away from the Cardinals, and get a dominant performance to breathe some life into this offense.
Prediction: Saints 34, Cardinals 10
Packers @ Redskins
Coming off a squeak-by victory at home against the winless Lions, the Packers now face a team fresh off a contentious game against the Eagles. Though they have one of the best passing defenses in the league, Ryan Torain will have a chance to pound the ball against a defense that is allowing nearly 120 yards per game. That is, IF they can contain Rodgers.
Speaking of the devil, it would be good to see him explode off a team that’s only friend in avoiding being the WORST defensive team against the pass, has been Houston. What was that about Ryan Torain getting some touches? Hmm…not likely. The Packers may not have much of a running game to speak of, but they have the weapons to take apart the Skins.
Prediction: Packers 31, Redskins 16
Eagles @ 49ers
For those keeping score at home, Kevin Kolb, he of the concussion that kept him out for 2 ½ games, is returning to the starting role this week. Amazing the instability behind center for a team in the thick of a divisional race, isn’t it? At any rate, the 49ers have yet to put together a solid performance offensively, and this week should be no exception. Not only is Philly the 5th ranked pass defense, Alex Smith has done nothing thus far to stop teams from stuffing the line.
McCoy has been getting it done this year, and a couple scores by Kolb should sufficiently put the 49ers into their shell. Once Alex Smith is forced to throw it, the Eagles should cruise to victory.
Prediction: Eagles 28, 49ers 10
And lastly, Bears @ Panthers
The Bears are off to a surprisingly good year, and get presumably a cookie match-up against the hapless, winless Panthers. This game can be summed up pretty simply - a lousy passing defense, against a QB having a very solid season, and a defense that doesn’t let anyone run on them. If the Bears manage to lose this game, it would shock me.
Prediction: Bears 28, Panthers 6
Any beef with any of this analysis? Leave it below.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
ALDS, NLDS set to kick-off this week
ALDS, NLDS set to kick-off this week
It took 162 games to decide the match-ups for the 2010 Major League Baseball season, but we finally know the 8 teams vying to be crowned the champion. The winner of the American League East, the Tampa Bay Rays led by Cy Young candidate David Price, plays host to the American League West champion Texas Rangers, led by sensational rookie closer Neftali Feliz, MVP candidate Josh Hamilton, and ace lefty Cliff Lee. The Rays won the season series, 4-2, but head into this series with a sub-.500 record over a span of 28 games (13-15). Meanwhile, the Rangers are just slightly above .500 over their final 29 games (15-14). Granted much of that time was spent playing out the schedule, having had a significant lead over 2nd place Oakland, but the ability to turn the engine back on may prove difficult.
The Rays have the unenviable distinction of having been no-hit not ONCE, but TWICE in the same season. Their offense is more inconsistent than Lady Gaga‘s look, and there are serious questions about the stability of their rotation. James Shields (13-15, 5.18 ERA), ended the season with an ERA of nearly 6 over the final 2 months. Jeff Niemann (12-8, 4.39 ERA), had an 8.78 ERA over the same time span, and has not really bounced back since spending time on the DL with a bad shoulder. Add Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA) who had a 5.88 ERA in the month of September, and all contribute to a rotation that may or may not deliver.
On the Rangers’ side of the ledger, Cliff Lee struggled through a rough patch during the month of August, going 1-6 with a 7.14 ERA, but bounced back nicely in September, throwing 3 quality starts. Colby Lewis, a scrub pitcher who came into 2010 with a 12-15 LIFETIME record (72 starts), and 6.71 ERA, concluded the season with a 12-13 mark, and an ERA of just 3.72 in 32 starts. C.J. Wilson, a converted reliever into a starter, came into his own this year, winning 15, and accruing an ERA of just 3.35 (33 starts). On paper, this series looks to favor the Rangers. A lineup that includes playoff newbie Michael Young, Vlad Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Derek Jeter-wannabe Elvis Andrus, appears to be too potent for homer-happy Shields and Garza to contain.
Prediction: Rangers in 4
Keys to the series: Can the Rays starters provide quality starts? Can the Rays offense support their pitchers? Will Cliff Lee show the dominance that he displayed in the 2009 World Series? Will Josh Hamilton be productive?
In the other ALDS match, the American League Central champion Minnesota Twins, led by reigning MVP Joe Mauer, play host to the American League Wild Card champion (and defending World Series champion) New York Yankees, led by a vaunted offensive attack including the active all-time home run leader, Alex Rodriguez, and another MVP candidate, Robinson Cano. The Yankees won their season series, 5-2. The Twins came into 2010 having lost their All-Star closer, Joe Nathan, to season ending Tommy John surgery. They made a trade with the Washington Nationals to acquire Matt Capps, who replaced opening day closer Jon Rauch. They had to deal with injuries in their rotation (Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn), and in their offense (Justin Morneau, Orlando Hudson), but got a jolt by the emergence of Delmon Young as a viable producer (career highs in batting at .292, home runs at 21, and RBI at 112), having eclipsed the 100 RBI mark for the first time in his career, and a power surge by the veteran Jim Thome (25 home runs in only 276 at-bats). Francisco Liriano, bouncing back from his own Tommy John surgery, set career highs in wins (14), innings pitched (191 2/3), and strike outs (201). Carl Pavano, who’s history of finding a way to NOT pitch, came just 1 win short of tying a career high, and just 1 1/3 innings from tying a career high.
The Yankees enter this series coming off a horrible month of September, by their standards (12-15 record). They had numerous opportunities to win the division, while the Rays made every attempt to fold. Beyond ace lefty CC Sabathia, things are muddled. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) made just 3 starts after returning from the DL following a groin injury. 2 of those starts against Boston did not go so well (11.05 ERA combined). Phil Hughes, who Joe Girardi chose to start, rather than skip in a game against the Red Sox, maxed on his innings limit. He may be asked to start twice in this series, and has yet to make a playoff start. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) had a decent final tune-up against the Red Sox in Fenway, but cannot be trusted to come with his A+ stuff in a critical situation (12 quality starts with a combined 1.66 ERA, 8.56 ERA in all others combined). Likely, the Yankees will look to get by in this series with 3 starters, to avoid the potential mess of Javier Vazquez. The bullpen appears to be in good shape, with the reemergence of Joba Chamberlain as a shutdown reliever, a blast from the past with Kerry Wood, the strikeout machine David Robertson, a tough lefty in Boone Logan to neutralize the Mauers and Kubels, and the ageless one, Mariano Rivera. Derek Jeter, a playoff veteran (most games all time, most hits all time in postseason history) ended the year on a high note, Rodriguez hit 5 home runs and drove in 12 runs in his final 10 games, Cano seems poised to have a big series, and Swisher looks to improve on a dreadful 2009 playoff run.
If the Yankees play to their capabilities, it will be another quick exit for a Twins team that has failed thrice in the last decade to beat the Yankees. If they play like they did down the stretch run, look for a repeat of 2007. Prediction: Yankees in 4
Keys to the series: Can Francisco Liriano be the ace this team needs? Can Matt Capps hold down a potential lead? Will the Twins miss Justin Morneau (concussion)? Can Andy Pettitte be effective? Can the bridge to Mariano hold? Can the Yankees manufacture runs?
Over to the NL side…the National League East champion (and 2-time defending National League champion) Philadelphia Phillies host the National League Central champion (first playoff appearance in 15 years) Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies won the season series, 5-2. The Phillies look like the clear favorites to advance to their 3rd consecutive World Series, the first National League team to accomplish that feat in over 60 years (1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals). They’re lead by game 1 starter, and Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay. Halladay is in his first postseason, having spent the duration of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays. Over the season’s final month, Halladay went a perfect 5-0, with a 3.42 ERA. Game 2 starter Roy Oswalt, former ace of the Houston Astros, had a lights out September with a 4-0 record, and a miniscule 1.12 ERA. Game 3 starter, Cole Hamels, was 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in that same month. This big 3 is arguably as good as any you’ll find. Offensively, what pitching staff wants to face the likes of Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez? This team belongs in the American League with all that firepower.
The Cincinnati Reds, led by MVP candidate Joey Votto, are looking to win their first playoff series since George Herbert Walker Bush called 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue his residence (and the now-retried Lou Piniella was kicking dirt at a theater near you). Their rotation is young and inexperienced, but full of potent arms. Edinson Volquez, their game 1 starter, finished the stretch run with a 1.95 ERA this year, with a strikeout/9 rate of over 10. Veteran Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA) set a new career high for wins this year, and looks to improve on an average September (3-2, 4.19 ERA). Johnny Cueto, set career highs in wins (12) and innings pitched (185 2/3), though his September (0-3, 4.32 ERA) was not great. Offensively, this team is going to struggle against the Phillies’ starters, even with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Scott Rolen, etc. The Phillies have the edge in the bullpen, with battle tested Brad Lidge. The Phillies may be hurt by J.C. Romero possibly being hindered with health issues, but they’ve been through this song and dance before.
Prediction: Phillies in 3
Keys to the series: Will Roy Halladay be as great in the postseason as he is in the regular season? How will J.C. Romero’s absence effect the bullpen? Can Brad Lidge be trusted?
And finally, the National League West champion San Francisco Giants (first divisional title in 7 years) take on the National League Wild Card champion Atlanta Braves (in Bobby Cox’s last hurrah). The Braves won this season series, 4-3. The Braves come into this series having BARELY eeked out a playoff berth on the last day of the season. Injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Kris Medlen have compromised their rotation, and the struggles of Tim Hudson down the stretch (2-4, 5.32 ERA) have put seriously in doubt how likely the Braves are to be competitive. Tommy Hanson, in his first full season as a starter, performed admirably with double digit wins, and a respectable 3.33 ERA. Derek Lowe could very well take on the ace role, having gone undefeated in September, with a sparkling 1.17 ERA. The problems with this team can be found in their offense. Minus Martin Prado and Chipper Jones, they’re going to have problems scoring runs. Rookie of the Year candidate Jason Heyward will need an Andruw Jones 1996 World Series reenactment to give this offense the boost it needs. Holding down the fort in the bullpen is the retiring Billy Wagner, who’s strike out rate in 2010 (13.5) borders on unfair.
The Giants, who got pushed to the brink of a 1 game playoff by the Padres over the last weekend of the season, are armed and dangerous. 2-time reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (5-1, 1.94 ERA in September), Matt Cain (5-1, 3.29 ERA in September), and Jonathan Sanchez (5-1, 1.01 ERA) are 3 starters that NO team wants to see in a first-to-3-wins-takes-it-all, ESPECIALLY not a team who’s proficiency to score runs makes Vitamin C’s 1 hit “Graduation” seem like a significant accomplishment. They should be able to score enough runs with Rookie of the Year candidate Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe and Pablo Sandoval. Brian Wilson not only saved the division, he could well save a trip to the NLCS, too.
Prediction: sorry Bobby…Giants in 3
Keys to the series: Will one of the Braves starters step up and be the ace? Will someone step up and carry their offense? Will the big 3 of San Francisco fare better than the Cardinals’ big 3 of 2009? Will their bats be potent enough?
So, there you have it. Rangers vs. Yankees in the ALCS, Giants vs. Phillies in the NLCS. Hopefully, this goes better than my playoff predictions in March (yikes!). Thanks a lot, Mariners…and White Sox…and Cardinals. Stay tuned for my analysis of the championship series, due once the 4 divisional series conclude.
It took 162 games to decide the match-ups for the 2010 Major League Baseball season, but we finally know the 8 teams vying to be crowned the champion. The winner of the American League East, the Tampa Bay Rays led by Cy Young candidate David Price, plays host to the American League West champion Texas Rangers, led by sensational rookie closer Neftali Feliz, MVP candidate Josh Hamilton, and ace lefty Cliff Lee. The Rays won the season series, 4-2, but head into this series with a sub-.500 record over a span of 28 games (13-15). Meanwhile, the Rangers are just slightly above .500 over their final 29 games (15-14). Granted much of that time was spent playing out the schedule, having had a significant lead over 2nd place Oakland, but the ability to turn the engine back on may prove difficult.
The Rays have the unenviable distinction of having been no-hit not ONCE, but TWICE in the same season. Their offense is more inconsistent than Lady Gaga‘s look, and there are serious questions about the stability of their rotation. James Shields (13-15, 5.18 ERA), ended the season with an ERA of nearly 6 over the final 2 months. Jeff Niemann (12-8, 4.39 ERA), had an 8.78 ERA over the same time span, and has not really bounced back since spending time on the DL with a bad shoulder. Add Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA) who had a 5.88 ERA in the month of September, and all contribute to a rotation that may or may not deliver.
On the Rangers’ side of the ledger, Cliff Lee struggled through a rough patch during the month of August, going 1-6 with a 7.14 ERA, but bounced back nicely in September, throwing 3 quality starts. Colby Lewis, a scrub pitcher who came into 2010 with a 12-15 LIFETIME record (72 starts), and 6.71 ERA, concluded the season with a 12-13 mark, and an ERA of just 3.72 in 32 starts. C.J. Wilson, a converted reliever into a starter, came into his own this year, winning 15, and accruing an ERA of just 3.35 (33 starts). On paper, this series looks to favor the Rangers. A lineup that includes playoff newbie Michael Young, Vlad Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Derek Jeter-wannabe Elvis Andrus, appears to be too potent for homer-happy Shields and Garza to contain.
Prediction: Rangers in 4
Keys to the series: Can the Rays starters provide quality starts? Can the Rays offense support their pitchers? Will Cliff Lee show the dominance that he displayed in the 2009 World Series? Will Josh Hamilton be productive?
In the other ALDS match, the American League Central champion Minnesota Twins, led by reigning MVP Joe Mauer, play host to the American League Wild Card champion (and defending World Series champion) New York Yankees, led by a vaunted offensive attack including the active all-time home run leader, Alex Rodriguez, and another MVP candidate, Robinson Cano. The Yankees won their season series, 5-2. The Twins came into 2010 having lost their All-Star closer, Joe Nathan, to season ending Tommy John surgery. They made a trade with the Washington Nationals to acquire Matt Capps, who replaced opening day closer Jon Rauch. They had to deal with injuries in their rotation (Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn), and in their offense (Justin Morneau, Orlando Hudson), but got a jolt by the emergence of Delmon Young as a viable producer (career highs in batting at .292, home runs at 21, and RBI at 112), having eclipsed the 100 RBI mark for the first time in his career, and a power surge by the veteran Jim Thome (25 home runs in only 276 at-bats). Francisco Liriano, bouncing back from his own Tommy John surgery, set career highs in wins (14), innings pitched (191 2/3), and strike outs (201). Carl Pavano, who’s history of finding a way to NOT pitch, came just 1 win short of tying a career high, and just 1 1/3 innings from tying a career high.
The Yankees enter this series coming off a horrible month of September, by their standards (12-15 record). They had numerous opportunities to win the division, while the Rays made every attempt to fold. Beyond ace lefty CC Sabathia, things are muddled. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA) made just 3 starts after returning from the DL following a groin injury. 2 of those starts against Boston did not go so well (11.05 ERA combined). Phil Hughes, who Joe Girardi chose to start, rather than skip in a game against the Red Sox, maxed on his innings limit. He may be asked to start twice in this series, and has yet to make a playoff start. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) had a decent final tune-up against the Red Sox in Fenway, but cannot be trusted to come with his A+ stuff in a critical situation (12 quality starts with a combined 1.66 ERA, 8.56 ERA in all others combined). Likely, the Yankees will look to get by in this series with 3 starters, to avoid the potential mess of Javier Vazquez. The bullpen appears to be in good shape, with the reemergence of Joba Chamberlain as a shutdown reliever, a blast from the past with Kerry Wood, the strikeout machine David Robertson, a tough lefty in Boone Logan to neutralize the Mauers and Kubels, and the ageless one, Mariano Rivera. Derek Jeter, a playoff veteran (most games all time, most hits all time in postseason history) ended the year on a high note, Rodriguez hit 5 home runs and drove in 12 runs in his final 10 games, Cano seems poised to have a big series, and Swisher looks to improve on a dreadful 2009 playoff run.
If the Yankees play to their capabilities, it will be another quick exit for a Twins team that has failed thrice in the last decade to beat the Yankees. If they play like they did down the stretch run, look for a repeat of 2007. Prediction: Yankees in 4
Keys to the series: Can Francisco Liriano be the ace this team needs? Can Matt Capps hold down a potential lead? Will the Twins miss Justin Morneau (concussion)? Can Andy Pettitte be effective? Can the bridge to Mariano hold? Can the Yankees manufacture runs?
Over to the NL side…the National League East champion (and 2-time defending National League champion) Philadelphia Phillies host the National League Central champion (first playoff appearance in 15 years) Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies won the season series, 5-2. The Phillies look like the clear favorites to advance to their 3rd consecutive World Series, the first National League team to accomplish that feat in over 60 years (1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals). They’re lead by game 1 starter, and Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay. Halladay is in his first postseason, having spent the duration of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays. Over the season’s final month, Halladay went a perfect 5-0, with a 3.42 ERA. Game 2 starter Roy Oswalt, former ace of the Houston Astros, had a lights out September with a 4-0 record, and a miniscule 1.12 ERA. Game 3 starter, Cole Hamels, was 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in that same month. This big 3 is arguably as good as any you’ll find. Offensively, what pitching staff wants to face the likes of Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez? This team belongs in the American League with all that firepower.
The Cincinnati Reds, led by MVP candidate Joey Votto, are looking to win their first playoff series since George Herbert Walker Bush called 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue his residence (and the now-retried Lou Piniella was kicking dirt at a theater near you). Their rotation is young and inexperienced, but full of potent arms. Edinson Volquez, their game 1 starter, finished the stretch run with a 1.95 ERA this year, with a strikeout/9 rate of over 10. Veteran Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA) set a new career high for wins this year, and looks to improve on an average September (3-2, 4.19 ERA). Johnny Cueto, set career highs in wins (12) and innings pitched (185 2/3), though his September (0-3, 4.32 ERA) was not great. Offensively, this team is going to struggle against the Phillies’ starters, even with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Scott Rolen, etc. The Phillies have the edge in the bullpen, with battle tested Brad Lidge. The Phillies may be hurt by J.C. Romero possibly being hindered with health issues, but they’ve been through this song and dance before.
Prediction: Phillies in 3
Keys to the series: Will Roy Halladay be as great in the postseason as he is in the regular season? How will J.C. Romero’s absence effect the bullpen? Can Brad Lidge be trusted?
And finally, the National League West champion San Francisco Giants (first divisional title in 7 years) take on the National League Wild Card champion Atlanta Braves (in Bobby Cox’s last hurrah). The Braves won this season series, 4-3. The Braves come into this series having BARELY eeked out a playoff berth on the last day of the season. Injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Kris Medlen have compromised their rotation, and the struggles of Tim Hudson down the stretch (2-4, 5.32 ERA) have put seriously in doubt how likely the Braves are to be competitive. Tommy Hanson, in his first full season as a starter, performed admirably with double digit wins, and a respectable 3.33 ERA. Derek Lowe could very well take on the ace role, having gone undefeated in September, with a sparkling 1.17 ERA. The problems with this team can be found in their offense. Minus Martin Prado and Chipper Jones, they’re going to have problems scoring runs. Rookie of the Year candidate Jason Heyward will need an Andruw Jones 1996 World Series reenactment to give this offense the boost it needs. Holding down the fort in the bullpen is the retiring Billy Wagner, who’s strike out rate in 2010 (13.5) borders on unfair.
The Giants, who got pushed to the brink of a 1 game playoff by the Padres over the last weekend of the season, are armed and dangerous. 2-time reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (5-1, 1.94 ERA in September), Matt Cain (5-1, 3.29 ERA in September), and Jonathan Sanchez (5-1, 1.01 ERA) are 3 starters that NO team wants to see in a first-to-3-wins-takes-it-all, ESPECIALLY not a team who’s proficiency to score runs makes Vitamin C’s 1 hit “Graduation” seem like a significant accomplishment. They should be able to score enough runs with Rookie of the Year candidate Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe and Pablo Sandoval. Brian Wilson not only saved the division, he could well save a trip to the NLCS, too.
Prediction: sorry Bobby…Giants in 3
Keys to the series: Will one of the Braves starters step up and be the ace? Will someone step up and carry their offense? Will the big 3 of San Francisco fare better than the Cardinals’ big 3 of 2009? Will their bats be potent enough?
So, there you have it. Rangers vs. Yankees in the ALCS, Giants vs. Phillies in the NLCS. Hopefully, this goes better than my playoff predictions in March (yikes!). Thanks a lot, Mariners…and White Sox…and Cardinals. Stay tuned for my analysis of the championship series, due once the 4 divisional series conclude.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)